The Advisor’s Corner

Ratchet Down

April 28, 2025/in Nuggets and Encouragement Regarding Strategy and Focus/by Tom Doescher

Tom Doescher

In the past several years, as I’ve been adjusting to my Fourth Quarter of life, I’ve coined the phrase “Ratchet Down.” It’s the idea that I simply can’t do all the things I could do when I was younger and had more energy. I’ve found I can pretty much stay active in most things I enjoy, but at a lesser level.

While that seems logical, it’s something many people find hard to accept and implement. One of the reasons for that is that we can get caught in a binary trap, and our thinking becomes stuck between two things: Keep doing what we’re doing, the way we’ve always done it, or drop the activity in question altogether.

But ratcheting down isn’t an either/or. Rather, it’s doing a little less — in all areas of our life — a bit at a time. Hence, we’re “ratcheting down” and adapting, not dumping the activities we’ve enjoyed doing.

This concept may especially be helpful for those of us who are baby boomers, although I believe it applies in a slightly different way — and could be equally useful — for those of you who are still youngsters. (Especially those with a Type A/Take the Mountain personality.) I’ve written a little about this in my book, “The Last Life Marathon,” where I highlight my transition from Plante Moran to Doescher Advisors. Along the way, I’ve discovered that the truth is this: More isn’t always better.

For those of us who are baby boomers, it’s important to accept the fact that our energy level diminishes with time. We just can’t do what we used to be able to do. To remain healthy, we need to accept that and learn to say “no” more often. Equally important is the ability to learn to do less of a certain thing. In other words, we need to learn to rachet down.

If you’re still counted among the younger folk, it helps to realize that you’re in the “Perfect Storm” of life — you’re likely to be married, you have young children who require a lot of your time, you have more responsibility at work or you’re building your own business, your spouse is assuming more responsibility at work or building their own business, you’re trying to maintain a certain level of fitness, and you’re answering leadership requests at church or your club. I think you get the point.

Time is a fixed commodity, and each of us only gets 24 hours a day. My advice is to invest in those hours wisely, and try ratcheting it down a notch or two. Just because you may be approaching the Fourth Quarter of your game, there’s no reason to completely give up on the things that bring you joy.

More on Mentors

March 17, 2025/in Sharpening Your Personal Leadership Skills/by Tom Doescher

Tom Doescher

If you’re a subscriber or have read any of my books, you know I’m a big fan of mentors. In fact, probably more than 25 people would fall into that category for me. Recently I read “The Mature Man: Becoming a Man of Impact,” by David Dewitt (please substitute person for man, since I deeply believe this advice applies equally to women). The concepts in the book are really relevant and powerful, although I did struggle with the presentation.

When I got to page 144, the author provided some really great support for seeking out mentors:

The term “mentor” comes from Homer’s epic “The Odyssey.” Before Ulysses went on a long journey, he chose a wise friend whose name was Mentor to guard, guide, and teach him. (Editor’s note: I didn’t know that!)
The author references a 22-year study that showed that 84 percent of those with mentors said they adopted at least some of the characteristics of their mentor.
According to the study, 87 percent of young adults expressed “positive” or “very positive” feelings about their mentors.
Although mentors are generally seen as temporary, the study indicated that 52 percent of the respondents reported that the relationship continued. As I’ve mentioned in the past, my mentor, Ken Kunkel, has advised me — and continues to do so — since 1970 (almost 55 years!).

Things a good mentor can teach you:

To take calculated risks.
To focus on your strengths.
To not worry about what others may think.
To follow your dreams.
To avoid wasting time (this is a big subject).
To become a giver.

In the past, I’ve mentioned a counselor who told me I have many mentors because I’m open to input. She went on to explain that many people aren’t like that.

So I ask: Are you open to input, even if it may hurt? If the answer is yes, I recommend seeking out a mentor or two.

The Great Depression of 2030

February 10, 2025/in Blog, Nuggets and Encouragement Regarding Strategy and Focus/by Tom Doescher

Tom Doescher

Several of my clients are members of industry trade associations and have retained ITR Economics as their outsourced economist to advise their member companies. These clients, who are successful and seasoned business owners, and aren’t easily impressed, speak very highly of ITR. One of them told me that advice from ITR saved his bacon in 2008. So, me being me, I went to Amazon to determine whether anyone had written any books about the subject. I discovered that in 2014, the founders of ITR, Brian and Alan Beaulieu, published Prosperity in the Age of Decline.

For some time, ITR has been predicting the “Great Depression of 2030.” The Beaulieus believe there are demographic trends that are dominant and will cause significant financial distress for the United States. These trends include:

Aging Population — We are an aging nation. In 2020, the U.S. population was 337 million; individuals aged 65 and older made up 55 million, or 16 percent, of the total population. The forecasted 2030 population is 365 million, and it is expected that 72 million baby boomers will account for 20 percent of that population
Government Debt — The U.S. has a serious cumulative outstanding debt issue. In 2014, the debt exceeded the GDP, and the U.S. is the second highest-ranking debtor nation of all major countries. (Editorial comment: The U.S. debt increased significantly during and after the Covid pandemic. As of November 26, 2024, the U.S. national debt was $36 trillion. This is the total amount of outstanding borrowing by the U.S. federal government over the country’s history.)
Social Security and Medicare payments account for 21 percent of the U.S. annual budget. In 2023, the federal government spent $1.35 trillion on Social Security, which is the largest single item in the federal budget. As of the end of 2023, the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASI) trust fund reserves were $2.6 billion. This was a net change of -$70.4 billion from 2022. In other words, it is bankrupt.

In my November 11, 2024, post, I mentioned the Masters Forum, an executive development program. One of our presenters was Lester Thurow, the famous MIT economist. He was a fabulous speaker and was able to really connect with his audience. I’ve always remembered his answer to the question “How do you predict the future?” His answer was, “I don’t predict the future. I study current existing trends, determine if they will continue, and then mathematically calculate the impact 10, 20, and 30 years from now.” That’s exactly what ITR does.

Based on the Beaulieus’ book, they are very data-driven and compare many different very well-known and highly-quoted forecasts to the actual results. Shockingly, many of these forecasts aren’t very accurate, but they continue to be quoted in financial publications and the media.

Candidly, the book was a struggle for me due to the volume of data, but in light of the endorsements from my clients and their trade associations, I would recommend that, at a minimum, you visit Brian and Alan Beaulieu’s website and at least become aware that a very contrarian economic/financial prediction exists. 2030s Great Depression – ITR Economics

Ratchet Down

Tom Doescher

More on Mentors

Tom Doescher

The Great Depression of 2030

Tom Doescher

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