Several of my clients are members of industry trade associations and have retained ITR Economics as their outsourced economist to advise their member companies. These clients, who are successful and seasoned business owners, and aren’t easily impressed, speak very highly of ITR. One of them told me that advice from ITR saved his bacon in 2008. So, me being me, I went to Amazon to determine whether anyone had written any books about the subject. I discovered that in 2014, the founders of ITR, Brian and Alan Beaulieu, published Prosperity in the Age of Decline. 

For some time, ITR has been predicting the “Great Depression of 2030.” The Beaulieus believe there are demographic trends that are dominant and will cause significant financial distress for the United States. These trends include:

• Aging Population — We are an aging nation. In 2020, the U.S. population was 337 million; individuals aged 65 and older made up 55 million, or 16 percent, of the total population. The forecasted 2030 population is 365 million, and it is expected that 72 million baby boomers will account for 20 percent of that population
• Government Debt — The U.S. has a serious cumulative outstanding debt issue. In 2014, the debt exceeded the GDP, and the U.S. is the second highest-ranking debtor nation of all major countries. (Editorial comment: The U.S. debt increased significantly during and after the Covid pandemic. As of November 26, 2024, the U.S. national debt was $36 trillion. This is the total amount of outstanding borrowing by the U.S. federal government over the country’s history.)
• Social Security and Medicare payments account for 21 percent of the U.S. annual budget. In 2023, the federal government spent $1.35 trillion on Social Security, which is the largest single item in the federal budget. As of the end of 2023, the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASI) trust fund reserves were $2.6 billion. This was a net change of -$70.4 billion from 2022. In other words, it is bankrupt. 

In my November 11, 2024, post, I mentioned the Masters Forum, an executive development program. One of our presenters was Lester Thurow, the famous MIT economist. He was a fabulous speaker and was able to really connect with his audience. I’ve always remembered his answer to the question “How do you predict the future?” His answer was, “I don’t predict the future. I study current existing trends, determine if they will continue, and then mathematically calculate the impact 10, 20, and 30 years from now.” That’s exactly what ITR does.

Based on the Beaulieus’ book, they are very data-driven and compare many different very well-known and highly-quoted forecasts to the actual results. Shockingly, many of these forecasts aren’t very accurate, but they continue to be quoted in financial publications and the media.

Candidly, the book was a struggle for me due to the volume of data, but in light of the endorsements from my clients and their trade associations, I would recommend that, at a minimum, you visit Brian and Alan Beaulieu’s website and at least become aware that a very contrarian economic/financial prediction exists. 2030s Great Depression – ITR Economics